The Iraq aftermath is surely a golden opportunity for Vickers

Apr 10 2003 By Peter Jackson, The Journal

It seems unseemly, to say the least, to start discussing the juicy contracts which will be available once the rebuilding of Iraq gets under way.

It's like greedy relatives arguing over a will while the body on its deathbed has yet to breathe its last.

But, that's the way of the world and the arguments are truly underway.

I read that US companies have already been asked to tender for a new Iraqi national health service (and what do the Americans know about that?), new airports and, apparently a $4.8m contract has already been awarded to Stevedoring Services of America to run Iraq's deep water port at Umm Qasr. Hang on a minute, I thought it was British forces that liberated Umm Qasr.

But there I go, also making the assumption that it will be a case of `to the victor the spoils'. This would, in fact, be a dangerous principle for the US and UK to operate on, as it would not only provoke international condemnation, but probably also arouse fierce resentment in Iraq.

On the other hand, the coalition governments, or their general publics for that matter, will find it hard if they find they have made the sacrifices of blood and treasure, only to watch as Chirac and Schroder walk off with the booty, laughing all the way to the bank.

And this could matter a great deal for the North-East. With our heavy manufacturing base and export record, many of our companies, from VA Tech Reyrolle to Amec, could stand to benefit from deals which one source has valued as high as £100bn over the next 10 years.

Also - and this is even more unseemly - at some point the Iraqi army will have to be reformed, retrained and re-equipped. Surely this must present a golden opportunity for Vickers.

This company, which not long ago looked as though it had a question mark over its future, could be one of the big business winners of the present Gulf war.

The received wisdom was that the day of the main battle tank - behemoths such as Challenger II - was over.

Once we no longer faced the prospect of doing battle with the Soviet hordes over the North German plain, we wouldn't need heavy armour.

Forces of the future would have to be light and flexible, so helicopters would be in and tanks would be out - so ran the theory.

But this war seems to have shown that the heavy tank does have a role to play, that it can be seriously useful in cowing the enemy and keeping ones own casualties down, even in built up areas, never traditionally the ideal arena for tanks.

Furthermore, Challenger II has performed exceptionally well, even better than the formidable US Abrams. It will be interesting to see how well Vickers now fares when foreign armies go shopping. As a footnote, I wonder how one other industrial sector will fare with the end of hostilities - namely the film industry.

Will Hollywood treat us to a series of action-packed shockers, with Bruce Willis no doubt to the fore? Or will it show restraint and good taste?

And if the former, which frankly seems the likeliest option, how will the British be treated? Will our contribution be ignored or treated with a disparaging put-down, as in Saving Private Ryan.

One thing we can be sure of - all the villains, Saddam Hussein, Chemical Ali et al, will all be given impeccable English accents.