Peter Jackson column

Jan 6 2005 By Peter Jackson, The Journal

Decorations come down, the tree goes off to the tip, having deposited a year's supply of needles in the car, and we all begin to count the cost.

As we glumly await the arrival of the bank and credit card statements, it should perhaps cheer us up that bad news for us means good news for the economy, at least in the short term. Because, of course, our extravagance and materialism over the festive season is a vital driver for many parts of the economy, especially retail, and, at this time of year, those same retailers are as anxious as we are to learn just how much we have spent.

And early indications are that we may not have been as profligate this year as some fear and others hope.

In December the Financial Services Authority told all the High Street store groups listed on the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 that they should publish poor trading information as soon as they had it.

So, earlier this week, Woolworths revealed flat like-for-like sales growth in December, compared to the previous year. This is blamed on worse than expected sales of toys and DVDs. Some analysts are taking this as an early indication that other major retailers will have had a disappointing Christmas in the face of higher personal debt levels, higher interest rates and an uncertain housing market.

Perhaps they are right, but I have my doubts.

To be ludicrously anecdotal about it, in my brief foray into the Christmas shopping maelstrom I saw no signs of flagging retail zeal.

Indeed it only confirmed in me my policy of only buying my wife a present and leaving her to get the rest.

I also spoke to a few people who told me they had done most of their Christmas shopping over the internet, thus not only avoiding the battling crowds but also the hassle of gift-wrapping.

Here hard statistical evidence comes to the aid of anecdote, for, also announcing trading results over the last few days was online retailer Amazon, and, while this received much less attention than Woolworths, it could be just as significant. The internet company reported the busiest Christmas in its 10-year history, receiving orders for 32 items every second worldwide. It sales in November and December are believed to have risen 29pc year-on-year to more than £8bn.

The Woolworths results may not be an indication of less shopping, only of a different sort of shopping.