Peter Jackson column
Mar 31 2005 By Peter Jackson, The Journal
I suppose we should be pretty grateful that the worst domestic economic news seems to be continued gloom on the high street.
It's not that I'm indifferent to the fate of our retailers - far from it. The British are, after all, a nation of shopkeepers and we all ultimately depend on their wellbeing. But a slight slowdown in consumer spending is not the worst economic news in the world and probably should be regarded as a necessary correction to a consumer boom.
We are talking about a 0.3pc decline in like-for-like sales in the four weeks leading up to February 26, the third year-on-year fall in four months.
DIY, gardening, furniture, and carpets were badly affected, and at the beginning of the month, French Connection reported pre-tax profits 15pc down on the year, and this week booksellers Ottakar's revealed a 1.6pc fall in like-for-like sales in the seven weeks to March 19.
To add to all this retailing misery, it is expected that this year's early Easter will not do shopkeepers any favours either.
A warm and sunny Easter gets people feeling good, taking leisure breaks, having barbecues, buying consumer goods and generally spending money. A dank, damp, misty weekend like the one we've just had, on the other hand
But, if Easter does turn out to have been a damp squib for retailers, they could point to factors other than the weather. They could blame the poor unfortunate at Barclays who programmed the cash machines incorrectly and so took several million pounds out of the economy.
On a serious note, as I've already indicated, the poor sales performance could be seen as a needed cooling-off of an overheated market, but, as I've also argued before, it's entirely possible there's nothing cyclical about it at all, but rather a long-term structural shift.
For instance, I was delighted to learn a couple of weeks ago that George MacDonald Fraser has written another Flashman book and it will be out in the next few days. I rushed to order a copy. I did so, however, with a few clicks of my computer mouse and not by going out to the bookshop. This is probably how I buy more than half my books now and if I'm typical, then Ottakar's loss could well prove to be Amazon's gain.
