Peter Jackson column
Jun 16 2005 By Peter Jackson, The Journal
It is gratifying for those of us who remember the 1970s to watch the economic tribulations of the French, Germans and Japanese.
Especially as the British economy still seems to drift serenely onwards and upwards.
I'm still not sure I buy Gordon Brown's claim that we're experiencing the longest period of sustained growth since the Black Death, but we do seem to be having things pretty good.
The question is - will it last?
The great cloud on the horizon, a housing crash, is looking less threatening than it was.
Towards the end of last year there were those who were forecasting a fall of up to 7pc in house prices this year. There's been little sign of that and last week the Halifax said prices had fallen just 0.1pc over the past five months, while Nationwide reported a 0.5pc rise in the three months to May.
This can give us grounds for cautious optimism, but we are by no means out of the woods yet. Last week's figures tell one story, while this week's tell another.
According to a Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors survey on Tuesday, house prices fell at their fastest rate for twelve and a half years in the three months to May.
And Land Registry figures show the number of properties sold in England and Wales has fallen by more than a third compared to 12 months ago.
It's all very confusing and I'm not sure who to believe.
Certainly, even if the housing market is not in sharp decline, there are other economic forces which could tip it over the edge.
In April, for instance, UK retail sales fell by the biggest amount in a decade, with like-for-like sales dropping 4.7pc against the same month in 2004.
Nor is there likely to be any fall in interest rates in the offing to provide a boost for the High Street or the housing market.
Inflation is at its highest level for seven years, with consumer price inflation at 1.9pc while analysts had been forecasting a fall to 1.8pc.
This is hardly the stuff of economic crisis, but it does make it unlikely the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will feel able to lower interest rates in the near future.
