Kevin Rowan column

Jul 11 2005 By Kevin Rowan, The Journal

When does a blip become a trend? And when does a trend become continuing, sustained success?

In the last report by Durham University Business School, covering the first quarter of 2005, we saw a total increase in employment of around 5,000 jobs, around 0.5% of the labour market.

Again it was retail that produced the highest gains, up 1,800 on the previous quarter, but there was growth in 15 of the 20 sectors covered.

Manufacturing grew by 1,000, financial services was up 670, transport and communications 620, and call centres and the automotive sector each enjoying a growth of 500.

Regionally owned businesses enjoyed strong growth, with some 4,250 gains compared to 350 losses in the previous quarter. British firms with headquarters outside the North-East lost 350 jobs, and foreign owned firms in the region gained 1,500 jobs.

This is all pretty good news for the first quarter of this year, but if we look a bit further back since the last quarter of 2002 there has been a steady and pronounced trend of employment growth through a mixture of existing firms expanding and new firms being established.

The largest share of jobs growth over the period was in the service sector, with some 33,000 jobs created since the end of 2002 (offset by around 5,000 losses).

While there were just short of 14,000 new jobs in manufacturing, this was offset by roughly the same number of job cuts.

Geographically, growth in the last quarter was also more distributed than in previous quarters.

While Tees Valley accounts for a little over a quarter of the region's labour force, it accommodated around one third of new jobs in the last quarter and endured only 9% of job losses.

And while Tyne and Wear suffered 230 job losses in the previous quarter, its labour force grew by some 1,900 in the first quarter of this year.

This continues a trend evident since 2002 and emphasises the value of the `city region' approach to economic growth.

In the last 30 months Tyne and Wear and Tees Valley have enjoyed significant growth (15,000 and 8,000 respectively).

Meanwhile, the economy of Northumberland has reduced by over 1,000 and Durham has remained pretty stable, growing by 700.

On the whole, though, the North-East economy appears to be on the way up!