Nicholas Craig column

Mar 3 2006 By Nicholas Craig, The Journal

I am in Nagpur, also known as the Orange City, the cleanest, second greenest city in India. There are avenues of orange trees scenting this bustling city, at the absolute centre of the country. It may not be coincidental that there is some cricket going on, but it also gives me an opportunity to meet the local business people and absorb their culture.

Economic forecasters are fascinated with the rate of India's business growth. There are reams of copy comparing it with the extraordinary expansion of trade in China. Even so, the two countries currently account for only 6% of the world's gross domestic product. In only 45 years' time, however, it is predicted that the figure will have shot up to 50%.

As a seasoned China visitor, I am fascinated with the way in which it has transformed itself to compete with the west. Its ruthless single-mindedness has brought about remarkable results. In less than 10 years it has shed 15 million manufacturing jobs, and opened itself up to western investors, many thousands of new tourists and the next Olympics.

The similarities I find most striking between India and China are the numbers and drive of young people. The education and future prospects of the youth from the two nations are, however, very different. India produces many more better qualified professionals than China. In two years time, India will have twice as many graduates as China. Many of those talented people will move into career routes in the service sector, which reigns supreme in India. The brain power augurs well for India's long-term position in world powers.

The speed of India and China's rise has taken us by surprise. What we forget is how poor the majority of people still are in both countries. Being amongst such poverty hits you hard. It also highlights how many obstacles lie in the way of a smooth rise in fortunes for both countries.

Even so, it may be time for young men to go east rather than west to make their fortune. Surrounded as I am by thousands of people determined to succeed, it is tempting to agree with Philip Dodd, who said: "The 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th century belonged to America and the 21st century is going to belong to Asia, China and India." Let's hope that doesn't also apply to the cricket.