Peter Jackson column

Sep 14 2006 By Peter Jackson, The Journal

Most people can't realistically assess risks or probabilities, hence the numbers playing the National Lottery.

Did you know, you have more chance of being murdered than winning a Lotto jackpot?

At this time, when we remember the attack on the World Trade Center, we might also recall the fear of flying that gripped the world in the aftermath of that event.

In fact, with heightened awareness and security, there had probably never been a safer time to fly. People clearly did not appreciate that they stood a higher chance of being killed in an armed robbery than on an aeroplane, but that did not deter many people from going to the bank.

This does have serious implications, and not just for the airline industry. An inability to assess risk, on the part of people and government, can impose serious difficulties on business.

A new - and utterly pointless - law requires all new bicycles to be fitted with a bell. Anybody who has ever ridden a bike knows that a simple "Ahem," "Excuse me" or even "Get out of the way!" is more effective at alerting a pedestrian than a bell. But the Government, alarmed that 12 pedestrians have died after being hit by cyclists in five years and anxious to prevent further slaughter, is thinking of making it punishable with a £2,500 fine or up to two years in prison to ride a bike without a bell.

Or take dishwashers. Our new one has an arrangement whereby knives are laid horizontally rather than, as in previous models, vertically. I can't help suspecting this must be associated with a recent fatal accident when a woman slipped in her kitchen and impaled herself on an upturned carving knife in the dishwasher. Of course this is tragic, but surely we can also recognise it as a truly freak occurrence.

Plastic carrier bags have to have small holes in now, to prevent the risk of children suffocating themselves.

These holes and the printed warnings on suffocation are an added cost in the manufacture of bags, although worthwhile if it prevents a death.

But while children suffocating in plastic bags has been a scare as long as I can remember, can anyone point to a recorded incident?