Challenge of a rising population

Sep 1 2008 by Kevin Rowan, The Journal

LAST week’s report by Eurostat will have gone unnoticed by most, was ignored by many and raised eyebrows among a few.

The survey of demographic trends in Europe showed a prediction of the EU population increasing from the current 495 million to over 520 million by 2035, before falling back again by the year 2060.

The demographic patterns are far from uniform across Europe. Germany expects a population decline, by around 12 million by 2060, while the population of France is expected to grow to 72 million.

One of the most surprising and challenging findings in the report, however, was the predicted growth in the UK’s population, up to 77 million by 2060.

While the ageing of the population is currently one of the key public policy challenges, for work, pension provision and health care primarily, this is less of a concern in the UK than elsewhere due to the relatively high birth rate here.

The current UK birth rate is at 1.91 children per woman, the highest it’s been for a generation and higher than any of the other ‘big six’ countries in the EU.

The current average age in the EU is 40, rising to 48 by 2060, but in the UK it is just 39 and is expected to rise to just 42 by 2060.

This will be of significant importance in the ‘longer lifespan’ future, balancing those in work and those in retirement.

The fact that the UK population is rising at about 1,000 people each day brings with it a whole host of other public policy challenges.

The ‘opening up’ of the EU showed how public services struggled to keep up with a relatively sudden, but relatively small, influx of migrant workers from within the continent.

An increase of around a quarter in the UK’s population is much, much more challenging, albeit over a much slower period.

We must take that period and use it to plan effectively for this growth.

The UK is currently totally imbalanced. The south-east and our largest city-regions are growing, while the more dispersed conurbations are seeing their populations decline or stagnate.

One of the key features of long-term public policy moving forward must be a much stronger regional policy. Radical measures to increase economic activity in under-performing regions have to be a key aspect of central government action now.

And it needs to be planned – reacting to it after the event will make public policy much less effective.

Kevin Rowan is Regional Secretary of Northern TUC