Great jobs divide

Mar 16 2009 by Kevin Rowan, The Journal

THE numbers of people out of work will continue to rise more sharply and steeply than it has to date and the number of vacancies will, in the short term, continue to decline.

Even within the region, however, these dynamics are extremely uneven. County Durham has endured a massive increase in Jobseekers Allowance claimants over the last year, virtually doubling since January 2008 to over 13,000 workers; while in Hartlepool, there has been a relatively small increase in the number of people unemployed, up just 895.

At the same time the pattern of current opportunities in the region is equally mixed, with all parts of the region enduring a decline in vacancies notified to Jobcentre Plus.

A key indicator of the severity of the economic situation is the ratio between current vacancies and the claimant count, and trends in this relationship.

In all areas in the north of England the ratio between claimant count and vacancies is growing rapidly. Despite the relatively low increase in unemployment in Hartlepool, the number of claimants to vacancies has grown from just over 7 to over 13. In Sunderland, the least worst off area in the region in this context, the ratio has grown from under three claimants per vacancy to under six.

There are also a number of areas in the region where the claimant to vacancy ratio would already indicate that moving from the recession to a prosperous, growing economy is going to be especially difficult.

In South Tyneside, for example, the number of JSA claimants pursuing each vacancy is up from 15 to 28; while in Redcar and Cleveland the number is over 17, up from nearly 12.

While there are opportunities for economic growth on the horizon, potential developments in which the North East, in particular, is especially well placed to benefit, it is still unclear when these areas for optimism will become real employment opportunities for workers in the region.

In the meantime, what must become clear is the intense and deep impact the recession is already having. The scale of the gap between the number of people seeking work and opportunities to work is increasingly alarming, meaning that without intervention workers will face a choice of long-term unemployment or leaving the region to find work.

There are actions that can mitigate these circumstances. Firstly, all parties need to talk honestly about the scale of this recession.

The Government can and should invest in the green manufacturing; there should be serious consideration given to short-term wage subsidy to minimise further job losses; and there should be an honest recognition of the direct and severe impact of these developments in increasing poverty.

Kevin Rowan is regional secretary, Northern TUC