Crunch may becoming less severe

Apr 7 2009 by Sarah Green, The Journal

THERE are signs that the credit crunch may have become less severe for business, according to the latest CBI figures.

Firms were less negative in the March CBI Access to Finance Survey than they were in February about the availability of new and existing credit over the previous three months.

For new credit, the net percentage of firms saying availability had deteriorated in the past three months was a balance of -36%, compared with -59% in February. For existing credit, the balance was -16% compared with -25%.

Fewer firms said in March that the availability of credit had got worse for them in the past three months than did so in February or January.

Firms are not saying that credit conditions are getting better, but the severity of the disruption is no longer worsening as sharply as it was three months ago. And the combination of easier monetary policy and Government measures to support the banking sector may be starting to have an impact.

Numbers of companies expecting conditions to worsen in the next three months fell back a little in March and firms said the cost of finance continued to rise and access to trade credit insurance has worsened over the past three months.

Nearly half of firms say they have cut staff numbers over the past three months, a slight increase on February’s figure. Staff hours have stabilised, even though output is still coming down, and firms are cutting back on training budgets and capital investment.

For the third month running, the very largest firms, employing over 5,000 staff, were most widely affected. Most of the companies in this size bracket that had sought new finance said its availability had got worse in the last three months. This was the case for just 15% of large businesses and 54% of SMEs.

In the next three months, just under a third of the very largest firms expect access to new credit will get worse, which is the case for just over a third of large firms and SMEs.

The cost of existing finance has become more of a concern in March. Just over a third of firms said the cost of existing finance had risen in the past three months compared with just over a quarter in February.

It’s not all good news however. Problems with the availability of trade credit insurance have intensified. Nearly half of firms surveyed said they use the insurance to cover the supply of goods to customers. Of these, nearly three quarters said its availability had worsened in the past three months.

Sarah Green is regional director of CBI North East