New Year brings new anxieties
Jan 4 2010 Kevin Rowan, Regional Secretary Northern TUC
THE New Year starts with a raft of anxiety for many workers in the region.
If you work in the private sector there are warnings of austerity from business organisations; in the public sector or the third sector the overwhelming discourse is of tough times ahead, understood by the majority of workers to mean the very real risk of budget cuts and subsequent job losses.
At the same time the economic indicators would point to a likely growth in inflation at some time this year, along with the VAT reduction being reversed, and the real prospect of interest rates starting to increase again with the banks and building societies almost certainly passing that straight on to mortgage payers.
These dynamics come after, for those who have managed to stay in work, a year on reduced earnings through shorter working hours or temporary lay-offs, many workers have endured pay freezes or pay cuts, working with employers to try and ensure businesses and employment survives the worst period of the downturn.
For those out of work already there are few reasons to be getting over-excited about the chances of moving into employment quickly. It is likely to be the second half of the year before we begin to see significant economic growth, but even then there will be an employment lag as those businesses that have adopted shorter working time will take up the ‘slack’ in the existing workforce before looking to recruit new workers.
The chances are we will see a growing industrial tension as the pressure on those in work continues to mount in the first half of 2010 combined with continuation of the growth in long-term unemployment that became apparent in the second half of last year. What a terrible time to be facing a General Election, with voters influenced as much by anger and disappointment as by policy and aspiration.
There is a real risk in these circumstances for growing industrial unrest, in both the private sector and the public sector. There was some evidence of this toward the end of the year both locally and on a national scale. Workers and trade unions have sought to work with employers to mitigate against the impact of the recession and are paying the price in dramatically reduced earnings. This can only ever last so long. As many employers have commented that they are ‘clinging on by their finger tips’ so are workers.
How these tensions are managed will be important in the months ahead.
Kevin Rowan, Regional Secretary Northern TUC
