Current gloom mustn't obscure vision of future

A TRANCHE of reports on how the construction sector is faring make for a depressing read. The Office for National Statistics has indicated that there was a fall in construction output of 4.7% for the first quarter of 2011.

And, according to the Construction Skills Network (CSN), construction output in the North East fell by 6% in 2010 – a second successive year of decline.

This sharply contrasted to the UK as a whole, where output rose by 7%.

The weak performance of the region’s construction sector was due to a 37% contraction in repair and maintenance projects but, on a positive note, new work output rose by 15% during the year.

It should also be remembered that building schemes in the region are likely to have been affected by the extreme winter weather, which saw many building projects grind to a halt.

However, instead of peering over our shoulders at what has happened in the past, it is important that those in the construction industry are forward looking.

There is no doubt that the sector is going to have to ride out some further tough economic times before there is a substantial upturn in the market.

This is reflected by the fact that CSN predicts the industry in the North East will see a further two years of declining activity before a recovery starts to kick in, in 2013.

But it is not all doom and gloom. There are some glimmers of hope, with the CSN forecasting the most buoyant sector will be the industrial arena, with output rising at an average of 6.9% during the five years to 2016.

The region's manufacturing sector is also likely to benefit from the continued weakness of sterling, which will trigger investment in new premises, extensions and upgrades.

During the next four years, it is projected that the region will experience annual average output growth of 1.3%. While this is weaker than the forecasted national figure of 2.3%, it is a positive figure and means that the North East construction industry will be moving in the right direction.

Another upbeat prediction is that, between 2012 and 2016, employment in the sector is expected to rise by 9% – a little more than the UK average of 8%. In percentage terms, the strongest increases are expected to be for civil engineers (20%), architects (18%) and plasterers and dry liners (18%).

The construction industry is sensitive to shifting business cycles and, therefore, has experienced and emerged from economic downturns in the past.

It is imperative that the industry takes a long-term approach rather than focusing on the short-term when planning for the future.

Companies need to begin preparing now to make sure they are ready to grasp the opportunities that will materialise when a sustainable recovery begins to materialise.

Catriona Lingwood, chief executive, Constructing Excellence in the North East. Call 0191 374 0233 or catriona@cene.org.uk.

Share