These statistics are not so easy to figure out

Aug 20 2009 by Peter Jackson, The Journal

STATISTICS have an enormous influence, particularly in the realms of business and economics.

Most people recognise that “there are lies damned lies and statistics” but sadly that theoretical recognition does not always prevent them taking at face value figures which are clearly are highly questionable.

The other day I was reading one of the respected political bloggers who described his attendance on a speed awareness course which he had to attend having been caught doing 37mph in a 30mph zone.

He seems to have been impressed by the course and particularly by some of the statistics quoted.

One person on the course said she had been speeding because she was rushing someone to hospital. The course leader said that 15% of people who drive too fast to get someone to hospital end up there themselves through having an accident.

And he was especially shocked when told that life expectancy is reduced to 12 minutes for those who break down on the motorway and decide to remain in their vehicle on the hard shoulder.

I was also shocked by that – shocked that anyone in their right mind could believe it. It would mean that, if you get out of your car and sit on the grass verge, you can expect to see, within 12 minutes, some vehicle come crashing into yours. It would mean the hard shoulders of our motorways being littered with wrecks and an enormous death toll.

As for the 15% casualty rate for those rushing someone to hospital, how can that figure possibly be arrived at?

Does someone in hospitals ask a sample of people whether they drove too fast on the way? Do they seriously believe they will get a truthful answer or accurate answer even if sincere? Do they then survey A&E admission car crash victims, establish how many were taking people to hospital, establish whether they were driving too fast, then somehow correlate the results of the two questionnaires? If someone really is doing this, we have identified a big public spending cut.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics and glaring whoppers told to sensationalise what would be a perfectly sound argument anyway but which is only undermined by treating the public like impressionable children.

Peter Jackson is a writer and former business editor of The Journal: p.jackson77@btinternet.com.