North East sceptical over claims slump is over
Aug 25 2009 by Iain Laing, The Journal
CLAIMS that the recession is at an end after a survey showed a surge in confidence in the economy among senior accountants have been greeted with scepticism in the North East.
Optimism among professionals moved to its highest level for two years in the third quarter, according to research by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
Chief executive Michael Izza said: “This quarter’s BCM suggests that the UK recession is at an end.
“While there is no doubt that the UK economy is on its way to recovery, we shouldn’t underestimate the challenges ahead for businesses.”
Ross Smith, director of policy at the North East Chamber of Commerce, said: “A year ago there was a rush to be the first to say we are in recession and now there is a rush to be the first to say it is over.
“But although we are seeing businesses feeling more confident and growth coming in it is too early to say the recession is at an end.
“The danger with being overconfident is that we can stop concentrating on giving help to business and lose our focus on getting out of the downturn.”
Japan, France and Germany have all recently emerged from recession, as have Asian economies like Thailand and Hong Kong. US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has also said that the US, the world's largest economy, is approaching recovery.
While initial figures showed that neither the US or UK grew in the second quarter, many expect economic output to return to positive territory in the three months to September. UK unemployment is at its highest level since 1995.
Liz Mayes, CBI assistant regional director in the North East, said: “CBI surveys have shown that there is some confidence coming back into the economy, but it’s too early to say whether the recession is over.
“Many companies are still facing depressed demand, but are finding the rate of decline slowing up. Our most recent service sector survey, for example, showed business levels are still below normal, but less so than in the previous three quarters.”
