Corporates outgrow underlying economy

WE ARE now more than a third of the way through US fourth-quarter reporting season and though it is too early to draw any concrete conclusions on the health of the corporate sector, there are certainly plenty of interesting trends to note.

The earnings so far reported have come in a little ahead of the analyst community’s expectations.

If corporates manage to hold on to this lead until the end of this earnings season, incredibly, it will be the 12th consecutive quarter they will have done so.

Allied to everything else we know about the corporate sector at the moment, this adds to a picture of a fit and increasingly confident corporate sector continuing to outgrow the underlying economy. In terms of sectors, there are three that have so far stood out.

On the negative side, readers won't be too surprised to know that banks’ earnings have been disappointing.

In fact, the main source of earnings downgrades have been the capital market activities of the major institutions.

Outside the world of investment banking, trends tentatively look more positive. On the flip side, more than half of the technology sector has reported earnings and our strategic overweight position in the sector continues to be handsomely rewarded.

The positive surprises have mainly come from the hardware segment where Apple and EMC remain on a steep growth trajectory.

In the world of semiconductor companies, the quarter looks to have been disappointing. However, Texas Instruments, the world's largest maker of analogue chips, noted that they were starting to see a pick up in orders following a slump over the latter part of 2011.

This is important because as fundamental building blocks in a broad range of electronic products, semiconductor companies tend to provide a good read of the future trend in global demand. Also in positive territory relative to analyst expectations so far is the industrials sector. Only half the sector has reported, but with Boeing, Caterpillar and General Electric having crossed the line, it is possible to make a tentative prognosis.

So far, revenues have come in a little shy of market expectations, but there have been decent surprises on the margin side – allowing earnings so far to come in comfortably ahead.

By and large, industrial sector CEOs have also managed to strike a reasonably positive tone in their corporate outlook statements, with some highlighting the US as a likely source of significant growth for 2012.

Those looking to take a more negative slant on this earnings season have noted the slowdown in sales and earnings growth compared to earlier in 2011.

Such a slowdown was inevitable in our view. Of course, corporate revenue growth will eventually converge with the underlying economy after a recovery. Similarly, the easy margin gains have probably been banked by most corporates.

However, for the moment, the width (and sustainability) of corporate margins, alongside the ratio of fixed to variable costs ensures that whatever growth these companies manage at the topline is multiplied at the earnings level.

With interest rates likely to remain at depressed levels until 2014, equity investors may be about to enjoy a period of sustained earnings growth.

:: Andrew Miller is regional office head of Barclays Wealth in Newcastle

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