IT IS the time of year when newspaper articles either reflect on what has happened in 2011, or predict what might happen in 2012 or attempt to do a little of both.

Let’s cast our minds back further to 2008 when Lehman’s collapse provided all manner of gloomy predictions. One commentator predicted that it would be the Olympics in 2012 before the “feel good” factor returned to the UK. At the time it seemed inconceivable that it would take four years for economic recovery and yet recent events in Europe suggest even that timescale is now hopelessly optimistic.

This time last year, absent the potential collapse of the eurozone, the predictions were that if you could survive 2011, things would be picking up by the time New Year 2012 came along. Has everything changed so dramatically that there will not be an increase in activity in 2012?

The likelihood is that the start of 2012 in the UK will be a bumpy ride for a number of businesses, particularly the larger SMEs and the so-called mid-cap businesses.

In the North East we are lucky that we have the suite of Finance for Business funds, which are aimed at SMEs, and indications are that they have picked up the slack where banks have not been able to lend. This however does not help healthy businesses with larger balance sheets or significant numbers of employees. Access to finance will remain the number one topic for businesses.

This will be exacerbated by the so-called “wall of refinance” which is predicted in 2012. Through a series of accidents and quirks of the recession, a very significant proportion of businesses will have to refinance their day-to-day facilities in 2012.

As the banks are under pressure to be more prudent, manage their own balance sheets and yet remain open, this will mean that some very good businesses will struggle to get the refinance deals they need. The inevitable knock-on effect is that things could become more litigious.

Playing to the old adage that it is often darkest before dawn, the pressures on refinancing and the follow-on litigation will be compounded by increased regulatory activity.

Regulatory prosecutions tend to increase as you come up from a recession. This is the perfect storm effect caused by a combination of factors. Compliance budgets tend to get cut at the start of a recession when businesses look to make savings which can cause mistakes. Regulators tend not to be as busy in a recession and are therefore looking for something to do.

The prediction that the Olympics will bring back the “feel good” factor is probably still a good one. For sure, the start to 2012 will be bumpy. The influx of millions of tourists bringing potentially billions of pounds (not euros) of revenue will have an effect.

As the North East has the most comprehensive suite of funds for SME businesses, is the only net exporting region in the UK and will be a favoured tourism destination for those “staying on” after the Olympics, 2012 will be a hard year but there should be some light at the end of the tunnel.

Neil Warwick is partner at Dickinson Dees law firm in Newcastle