UK economists were surprised by the news of a big fall in industrial output for the month of April, the data for which came in relatively recently.

Readers may be asking themselves whether the “soft patch” in the global growth story has now intensified, and what effects this may have on equity investments.

Yet we, in fact, doubt that this “soft patch” has substantially intensified. Instead, we would actually agree with some of the other official statisticians out there – namely, that if factories are closed, they don’t produce as many things, and in the month of April – with an extra, one-off Bank Holiday – the fall in output could have actually been larger.

Elsewhere, data still remains inconclusive as to whether the global economy is in fact stalling, or simply encountering an “air pocket”.

We believe the latter to be the case, although this will not become clear for a while yet. By way of example, additional retail sales data from the US will be watched particularly carefully in light of these considerations.

As noted before, the spending patterns of US consumers are materially important, and the American consumer is still the largest single customer for Global Inc.

To date, US consumer spending has been impressively resilient, although a fragile retail sales number – released by the Department of Commerce on June 14 – will certainly elicit a bigger response than a solid one.

So, while a number of uncertainties still persist – such as the matter of the US debt ceiling and the contents of Greece’s pending support package, as well as the “soft patch” – it would not be surprising to see equity markets continue to falter.

This being said, readers should note that the setback so far has been modest, and it has been accompanied by a remarkably small rebound in implied volatility – some escalation in both would not be a shock.

Even so, we doubt that it will prove worthwhile for most investors to attempt to fine-tune market timing as selling now might mean missing a rally in the months ahead.

In fact, we still think that it is bonds – not stocks – that will eventually face the biggest cyclical and valuation headwinds.

In the meantime, the European Central Bank – ECB – has given a clear indication that euro area interest rates are indeed set to rise further in July, and we believe that there may even be an additional hike later in the year. The ECB does attract some criticism, but it has effectively delivered a masterclass in monetary transparency of late. Its job – unlike that of the US Federal Reserve Bank – is to focus only on controlling inflation.

In the short-term, the ECB’s determination not to compromise its monetary credibility poses some risks to the ongoing crisis management in Greece, but in an emergency, we suspect the ECB might yet prove more accommodating – outside the monetary policy arena.

And in the meantime, it has placed the ball firmly in the politicians’ court.

Finally, readers may be surprised to learn that traders reportedly sold the pound, and bought gilts, on the “surprising” news about the UK manufacturing output decline for April. Exasperated parents everywhere will know the feeling – just because they did it, it doesn’t mean you have to.

:: Andrew Miller is regional office head of Barclays Wealth