Certainly in the season of surveys

May 19 2009 by Neil Warwick, The Journal

HAVING had the benefit of previews of a number of important surveys, some of which are now public and some of which will be revealed shortly, it is interesting to see the emerging statistical analysis coming out of the current economic crisis.

The Financial Times, not surprisingly, is applying the traditional recessionary curve model, demonstrating that in certain instances the economy may either be at the bottom of the so-called U curve or may be slightly turning upwards. This has prompted the question as to whether green shoots of recovery are beginning to appear?

The CBI issued its quarterly SME trend survey on May 5, a statistically robust and factual piece which, when analysed, demonstrates a number of positive factors about the sector.

The executive summary is cautious, hinting at a note of “things are not as bad as they were” rather than the green shoots theme.

The implication, of course, is that if things are not as bad as the last quarter, they may be at the bottom or turning up the curve.

Both surveys apply a one-size-fits-all analysis to the whole economy. The CBI survey is probably more positive as the SME sector tends to turn the corner quicker in recessions.

Service Network has carried out a major piece of research into the KIBS (Knowledge Intensive Business Services) sector. This is the first survey of its kind in the region and probably the first of its kind in the UK. The results are still embargoed. The previews are very exciting for the region and certain clusters within the KIBS sector shows the region still has some nationally and internationally important players – golden nuggets rather than green shoots.

The fact that surveys are demonstrating a more positive attitude is good. Following a not very scientific poll on the East Coast Main Line, one thing is certain – we are firmly in the middle of survey season.

Neil Warwick is partner and head of the Kudos department at Dickinson Dees LLP